The Future of Space Exploration: From the International Space Station to Commercial Space Stations
In the year 2030, an era will come to a close as astronauts leave the International Space Station (ISS) for the final time. The trajectory of the ISS will be adjusted to put it further into the path of Earth’s atmosphere over the next year. A specially designed deorbit vehicle will then push the station down into the atmosphere, where it will meet its end in a spectacle of disintegration and vaporization.
“As the station hits the atmosphere at thousands of miles per hour, first the structure’s giant solar arrays and radiators will be ripped off; then each of the modules will separate; and finally, the truss structure that makes up the backbone of the station will break up…” says a report from The Verge.
The ISS, a symbol of the space age that has served humanity for over three decades, will be replaced by one or more commercial space stations, each run by a private company as part of a thriving space economy.
The Race to Create Commercial Space Stations
Time is of the essence as companies race to get their space station concepts ready. If we want to maintain a continuous human presence in space, which we’ve had for over 20 years, the private sector only has a few years to get their designs built, tested, launched, and inhabited. This will be a pioneering venture as there has never been a commercial space station before, and the economic outlook is uncertain.
Deorbiting the ISS is deemed necessary primarily because of its age and the high cost of repairing or replacing its hardware. Switching to a commercial model could be a feasible alternative—if it can happen on time.
NASA’s Role in the Advent of Commercial Space Stations
NASA has expressed its desire to become a customer of space companies, aiming to reduce costs and get infrastructure built. This model has proven successful in the Commercial Crew program, which has provided two space transport vehicles that can carry humans into orbit for a fraction of the price the agency would have spent developing its own vehicle.
“By transitioning off a US government-owned and operated platform to a commercial platform, it is our goal to reduce costs, to open up to other customers and provide that commercialization that will reduce costs for all of us and provide new ways of doing business,” said Angela Hart, manager of NASA’s Commercial LEO Development Program.
The Contenders in the Race
Two companies, Blue Origin and Starlab Space, are currently developing their own independent space station designs. A third company, Axiom Space, is developing a modular station infrastructure that will initially be attached to the ISS. NASA funds all three companies to develop their concepts, and several other companies have expressed interest in building a space station.
However, the tight timescales present a challenge, and there are concerns about potential delays. As evidenced by the SpaceX Crew Dragon and Boeing Starliner, private companies are just as prone to missed deadlines as NASA. The key question remains: Will the station (or stations) be ready in time?
The Uncertain Future
The future of space exploration is exciting but also fraught with uncertainty. The transition from a government-operated space station to commercially run space stations represents a significant shift in the space economy. While this change promises potential cost savings and efficiency, it also presents challenges, including tight deadlines and the uncharted territory of commercial space station operation. Nevertheless, the race is on, and the world watches with bated breath as the future of human presence in space unfolds.
Source: The Verge
